FedExCup Playoffs: Scheffler Leads Betting Market as McIlroy Chases Historic Fourth Title

 FedExCup Playoffs: Scheffler Leads Betting Market as McIlroy Chases Historic Fourth Title

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The FedExCup Playoffs have begun, with Scottie Scheffler entering the three-week postseason as the leading betting favorite to claim the season-long title.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis opens the playoffs, with 69 players competing at TPC Southwind. The top 50 in the FedExCup standings will advance to next week’s BMW Championship in St. Louis, while only the top 30 will reach the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

Scheffler, who starts the playoffs at No. 1 in the FedExCup standings, is priced at +330 by DraftKings to win the championship for the second time in three seasons.

Rory McIlroy is the second favorite at +810 as he attempts to win an unprecedented fourth FedExCup title. McIlroy previously captured the season-long championship in 2016, 2019 and 2022 and is looking to add another major postseason achievement to a season that already includes a Masters victory.

Cameron Young is listed at +1350, followed by Xander Schauffele at +1600. Ludvig Åberg and Tommy Fleetwood are both priced at +1700, while Sam Burns is +1750 and Matt Fitzpatrick is +1950.

FedExCup betting favorites

• +330: Scottie Scheffler
• +810: Rory McIlroy
• +1350: Cameron Young
• +1600: Xander Schauffele
• +1700: Ludvig Åberg, Tommy Fleetwood
• +1750: Sam Burns
• +1950: Matt Fitzpatrick

The format for the TOUR Championship has also changed. Starting Strokes have been eliminated, meaning all 30 players who qualify for East Lake will begin the tournament on equal footing. The player with the lowest 72-hole score will win the event and the FedExCup.

Scheffler is also heavily favored to win at least one of the three playoff events. DraftKings lists him at -150 to win one or more tournaments during the postseason. He is +530 to win two of the three events and +3400 to sweep all three.

McIlroy is the only other player listed with odds shorter than 625-to-1 to complete the three-event sweep, at +20000.

One of the biggest longshot stories is Patrick Rodgers. The veteran enters the FedExCup Playoffs ranked 66th and still searching for his first PGA TOUR victory after 334 career starts.

Rodgers needs a strong performance at the FedEx St. Jude Championship to remain in contention for the BMW Championship. He is expected to need at least a top-eight finish to have a realistic chance of moving into the top 50.

DraftKings has Rodgers at +75000 to win any of the three playoff events.

The betting markets also include players attempting to qualify for the 30-man TOUR Championship field. J.J. Spaun, currently 21st in the standings, is listed at -750 to make it to East Lake. J.T. Poston, ranked 30th, is +175, while Robert MacIntyre, one place behind him at No. 31, is -124.

Among other players, Alex Smalley is -220 to qualify, Tom Kim is -162, Rickie Fowler is -138 and Gary Woodland is -108.

With the points race now entering its decisive stage, every shot carries increased significance. Players outside the top 50 must produce immediately to keep their seasons alive, while those near the top of the standings are fighting for the opportunity to compete for the FedExCup at East Lake.

Scheffler begins as the clear favorite, but McIlroy’s pursuit of a fourth title and the compressed playoff format leave the championship race wide open over the next three weeks.

Betting odds are subject to change. Gambling involves risk. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek appropriate professional support.

Analysis: Scheffler Starts as Favorite, but FedExCup Format Creates an Open Race

The 2026 FedExCup Playoffs begin with Scottie Scheffler carrying the strongest expectations, but the betting market also highlights just how unpredictable the three-week race can become. Scheffler enters the postseason as the No. 1 player in the FedExCup standings and the +330 favorite to win the championship, according to the odds provided by DraftKings. 

Scheffler’s position at the top is logical. His consistency, elite ball-striking and ability to contend week after week make him the player most bookmakers trust over a short playoff run. However, his odds also show that victory is far from guaranteed. At +330, the market is effectively acknowledging that several other players have realistic paths to the title.

Rory McIlroy represents the most obvious challenge. The Northern Irishman is listed at +810 and is chasing a record fourth FedExCup championship. His previous victories in 2016, 2019 and 2022 give him a level of postseason experience that few players can match. The possibility of McIlroy adding another FedExCup title to a season that already includes a Masters triumph makes him one of the biggest storylines of the playoffs.

The most important factor, however, may be the new structure of the TOUR Championship. The PGA TOUR has removed the Starting Strokes system, meaning the 30 players who reach East Lake will begin the final event on equal terms. The player with the lowest 72-hole score will win the tournament and the FedExCup. 

That change dramatically increases the importance of momentum. Under the previous system, a player who built a large advantage in the FedExCup standings could arrive at East Lake with a substantial starting advantage. Now, even the No. 1 seed can be beaten simply by being outplayed over four rounds.

This makes the first two playoff events especially important. The opening tournament reduces the field to 50 players for the BMW Championship, before the final 30 advance to East Lake.  Players around the qualification line therefore face almost as much pressure as the favorites.

Robert MacIntyre, for example, begins just outside the projected top 30 and is listed at -124 to reach the TOUR Championship. J.T. Poston, sitting around the cutoff, is priced at +175. Those numbers demonstrate how quickly fortunes can change during the playoffs.

There is also an intriguing longshot element. Patrick Rodgers, still seeking his first PGA TOUR victory after 334 career starts, is priced at +75000 to win an event during the playoffs. His chances are remote, but the postseason provides precisely the kind of high-pressure environment in which an unexpected breakthrough can become possible.

Ultimately, Scheffler deserves his status as favorite, but the new format makes the FedExCup less predictable. McIlroy’s experience, the depth of the field and the elimination of Starting Strokes mean that three strong weeks—not simply a dominant regular season—will determine the champion.

The betting market may favor Scheffler, but East Lake’s level playing field ensures that nobody can afford to relax. 

Source: PGA Tour